Here's an interview I did with Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network from Wednesday discussing the macro outlook and the risks in the coming 12 months. My baseline assumption is that growth will continue to [...]
Here are three things I think am thinking about this week. 1) Economic Tightness and Easing Demand. Monday's Senior Loan Survey from the Fed showed continued tight lending conditions. There's been a lot of debate [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) The labor market continues to soften. Friday's employment report was just right. Not too hot and not too cold. But it also [...]
Wednesday's Fed decision was largely unsurprising. But the most important data point of the day came long before the Fed decision. The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when [...]
The Japanese Yen has been undergoing quite the roller-coaster ride in recent weeks and is now down over 45% vs the USD since 2020. With their large government debt load many investors are wondering if [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the weekend: 1) WAR! The situation in the Middle East is getting more and more uncertain as Iran and Israel trade barbs. I guess [...]
Well, I had a great time earlier this year as I was able to mock certain people for thinking we'd get a rate cut in March or April. But now it's my turn to be [...]
One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation. This can be confusing because there's often an assumption that more jobs mean [...]
Someone emailed me the other day asking about my "muddle through" prediction of the last few years. They were pushing back on this idea that the US economy is just muddling along. I actually love [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the holiday weekend: 1) Core PCE is STILL trending in the right direction. Core PCE came in at 2.78% on Friday. This was the [...]