The 60/40 Portfolio Is Alive and Well
Is the 60/40 portfolio "dead" or more alive than ever? In this piece we discuss the irrationally of these narratives and why we know 60/40 looks better than it has in a long time.
Chart of the Week: Commercial Real Estate Collapse
One of the recurring themes I've focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we've been experiencing since 2021. In short, economic booms lead to [...]
Cash – The Most Active Asset of them All
I had a funny interaction with someone recently talking about their retirement and the passive nature of the cash market. They were explaining how they were constantly worried about how much cash flow and principal [...]
Interview: The National Debt, Hyperinflation and Lessons from 2008
Here's an interview from last week on Public.com where I discuss the macro landscape. Topics include: What is hyperinflation and is there a risk of it occurring in the USA? How banks create money and [...]
Chart of the Week – Services Prices Going Down, Down, Down
One of the stickier components of recent inflation data has been services inflation. In the CPI data this has been primarily driven by rents, but services in general have remained much stickier than other prices. [...]
Why Not One Fund?
The Strategy Lab category is a new feature we'll be adding here at Discipline Alerts. This will focus exclusively on portfolio construction and our views on how to optimize the portfolio construction and management process. [...]
Chart of the Week – Are the Banks on Fire?
This week's chart of the week shows the S&P Regional Bank index performance year-to-date. The Index is down -27% this year and -34% from its high. Pretty big numbers. Banks are obviously getting a lot [...]
Understanding the Bank Panic of 2023 (Video)
We put together a brief video on the dynamics of what's occurring in the banking system presently. We cover: How the credit cycle typically unfolds Why banks are being hurt in this environment I hope [...]
Chart of the Week – Is the Credit Cycle Different This Time?
This week's chart of the week shows the standard credit cycle and how it coincides with booms and busts across time. It typically works something like this: Economic expansion Economic expansion turns into economic boom [...]
Credit Risk Happens Fast – a SVB Postmortem
One of the themes I've been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we're currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle [...]