Chart of the Week: Is the Fed About to Fumble?
The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented pace in the last 18 months. And while it seems like they’ve been raising rates for a long time the reality is that they were playing catch [...]
Weekend Reading – Commuting, Credit and Fumbling in the Red Zone
Here are three things I think I am thinking about. 1) Work is for jerks. There was a viral rant going around Twitter all week from a young lady who hates her 9-5 job and [...]
Chart of the Week: Booming GDP?
Q3 GDP came in at a boomy 4.9%. The chart at the right breaks down the contributions by component. The primary drivers were inventories and personal consumption at 1.3% and 2.69%. The inventory rebuild is [...]
Weekend Thoughts – Inflation Hedges, Bonds & The “This is Fine” Economy
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) What's the best inflation hedge? There's always a lot of debate about what the best inflation hedge is. Is it gold, commodities, [...]
Chart of the Week – The Broken Housing Market (That Isn’t Broken)
Mortgage rates officially hit 8% today. It's amazing considering mortgage rates were as low as 2.5% back in just 2020. But it isn't the high rate that is so alarming - it's the rate of [...]
What Was the Cost of the COVID Stimulus?
Here's a Tweet (do we still call them Tweets?) from Paul Krugman which is getting a lot of flak. As I noted last month, he's mostly right, but just explaining this in a bad way. [...]
Weekend Thoughts – SBF, Interest Rates & Jobs
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) SBF is not an effective altruist. Michael Lewis has been a literary hero of mine for decades. Liars Poker was a book [...]
Chart of the Week: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Yields have been surging in recent weeks as markets price in rising credit risk and the likelihood of the Fed remaining higher for longer. Our view on credit risk hasn't changed this year - Fed [...]
Should You T-Bill and Chill?
T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you're getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we've seen since [...]
Updated Whitepaper – Defined Duration Investing
We've been implementing the Defined Duration strategy in real-time for over a year now and the feedback has been tremendously positive (updated white paper is here). For those who aren't familiar, this strategy is based [...]